Russian Federation says may step up oil output further to tackle supply deficit

Brent Oil Falls 4% To 3 Month Low As Supply Outage Concerns Ease

Another sign the marker abounds with crude came in the form of US president Donald Trump's administration reportedly considering selling 5 million to 30 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market, as well as a larger release that would be coordinated with other nations (the USA now holds 660 million barrels of oil in reserve).

OPEC has propped up prices since January 2017 by limiting its supply, but the slow-and-steady rally accelerated earlier this year when Trump restored sanctions on Iran, the world's fifth largest oil producer. Trying to use the oil reserve to try to control prices might prove fruitless because it may not slow growing demand and underinvestment is the main reason for the tightening supply.

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said on Tuesday uncertainty over USA trade policy could slow the economy, even if recently imposed tariffs are too small to have a big impact.

OPEC and non-OPEC's compliance with oil output curbs has declined to around 120 percent in June from 147 percent in May, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Wednesday.

Despite of started trade war Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish outlook on commodities, arguing in a research note that the trade war will not derail rising prices. So, they continue to import oil just as before.

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While Libyan ports are reopening, output at the country's Sharara oilfield was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) after two workers were abducted by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation said on Saturday.

Trump has the authorization to release more oil and the Saudis are offering more oil as well. The report, however, noted that the next price collapse could be avoided by boosting production in countries including the United States, Angola, Canada, and Brazil. But it's a tough call as Iran, the 3rd biggest oil exporter in OPEC, may export only two-thirds of its supplies because of new US sanctions. Iran, facing the loss of customers scared off by USA penalties, disputes that OPEC agreed to any significant output increases at its meeting in June.

On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the International Energy Agency is also considering releasing oil supply. On top of that, talk of more oil from Saudi Arabia and the fact President Donald Trump is going to bring up oil with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki is also pressuring prices in the short term. The US oil rig count remained steady at 863 this week.

"Supply shifts, alongside the ongoing surge in Saudi production, create the risk that the oil market moves into surplus" in the third quarter, the report said.

Still, we think that increased production may not be enough, and prices will be supported by the continuous drop of Venezuela's and Iranian loss of exports.

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