India likely to receive average monsoon rains in 2018: Met department

Sashastra Seema Bal personnel on election duty sip tender coconuts to beat the heat at Majestic in Bengaluru on Saturday | Shriram B N

As per historical data, the long-period average (LPA) rainfall - between June and September - is 89cm.

A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy. A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsoon.

IMD Director General K G Ramesh said there is a "very less probability' of deficient rainfall this season".

India's weather office defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cms for the entire four-month season beginning June.

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Why good rain is vital for Indian economy and what is its significance in the current political landscape? The latest forecasts from the MMCFS and global models indicate weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season.

The IMD, which released its initial forecast for the four-month monsoon season, also said preliminary indications showed this year's rains would evenly distributed. This is the third consecutive year when the IMD predicted normal monsoon rains for the country.

Despite "normal" forecast, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions. "There is thus maximum probability of normal rainfall and low probability for deficient rainfall", he said. The dynamic model has forecast a rainfall of 99 per cent plus or minus a model error of five per cent, while the statistical model forecast is 97 per cent plus or minus model error of five per cent. Although rains would witness a drop in July and August that will not much affect the farmers.

Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall for the year 2018, is likely to be 97 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5 percent, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its forecast today.

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