Forecast predicts 2018 of record USA oil production

Forecast predicts 2018 of record USA oil production

There are several reasons why oil markets have tightened.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at US$63.57 a barrel, up 61 cents, or 1 per cent, their highest settlement since December of 2014. Brent in London traded around $US68.55 per barrel, a new 2 ½-year high.

The U.S. was a net exporter of natural gas for the first time in 2017 on an annual basis, with net exports averaging 0.4 bcf per day, and expected to average 2.3 bcf per day in 2018 and 4.6 bcf in 2019.

USA crude oil production is being forecast to average 10.3 million b/d in 2018, marking the highest annual average production in US history.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. output to surpass 11 million bpd by 2019.

Analysts said his remarks alleviated market concerns about a wind-down of the OPEC-led deal to reduce production.

OPEC and non-OPEC participants agreed on November 30, to extend the production cuts through the end of 2018 in an effort to reduce global oil inventories.

Forecast predicts 2018 of record USA oil production
Forecast predicts 2018 of record USA oil production

Some 800,000 bpd of the projected 1.2 million USA increase from December 2017 to December 2019 is expected to come from tight rock formations in the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico, the agency said.

Prices have fallen for three years straight since then because of a meeting between oil-producing nations on Thanksgiving where Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil exporter, said it would not curb output to balance out an global glut.

Most of the remaining growth will come from offshore wells in the federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with seven new projects expected to come online by the end of 2019, the agency said.

"This year's rapid rise in oil prices, which hit $70 this week, is backed by strong demand growth and a fall in oversupply on the back of the OPEC and non-OPEC pact, not only by political tensions, Mazroui said".

US crude production is forecast to average 10.3 million barrels a day in 2018, a record level. Average WTI crude oil prices are forecast to stay between $4/b and $5/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019, falling from the $6/b average price difference seen in the fourth quarter of 2017.

That's bad news for the United States coal industry and Donald Trump ambitions to restore coal's fortunes. EIA expects consumption growth will average 1.7 million b/d in 2018 and 1.6 million b/d in 2019, driven by the countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). EIAs January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent to average $60/b in 2018 and $61/b in 2019.

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